A comparative view of tariffs and sanctions
With a focus on how US measures may impact on Russia
Here’s a comparative view of the key differences and effects between U.S. sanctions, secondary sanctions, and trade tariffs, with a focus on how they impact Russia:
U.S. Sanctions (Primary Sanctions)
Definition:
Legal restrictions imposed by the U.S. government (usually via the Treasury’s OFAC) that prohibit American entities and individuals from doing business with specified targets.
Targets:
Specific individuals (e.g., oligarchs)
Companies (e.g., Russian defence firms)
Entire sectors (e.g., energy, banking)
State institutions (e.g., Central Bank of Russia)
Impact on Russia:
Asset freezes on Russian elites and state funds abroad
Disconnection from SWIFT for major banks
Collapse in foreign investment from Western institutions
Block on high-tech imports, degrading Russia’s defence and energy sectors (e.g., chips, turbines)
Limits Russia’s access to U.S. dollar transactions, hitting trade and finance
Secondary Sanctions
Definition:
Penalties imposed on non-U.S. entities (foreign companies, banks, governments) that continue to do business with sanctioned Russian parties.
Purpose:
To extend U.S. enforcement globally by deterring third countries (e.g., China, Turkey, UAE) from aiding Russia or bypassing sanctions.
Impact on Russia:
Chills international trade: Firms in Asia, Middle East, and Africa fear U.S. punishment and reduce dealings with Russia.
Strains diplomatic ties between the U.S. and countries trying to remain neutral
Limits Russia’s access to global goods like semiconductors, machine tools, aircraft parts
Forces Russia into smuggling, black markets, and “friendly” country dependencies
Tariffs
Definition:
Taxes on imported goods from a specific country — applied at the border by customs authorities. Tariffs do not prohibit supply, it simply applies a tax on the trade - allowing trade to continue otherwise unhindered.
Use against Russia:
U.S. and EU have already imposed 100% tariffs on Russian exports, especially metals (aluminium, steel), energy products, and luxury goods
Aimed at reducing revenue to the Russian state
Impact on Russia:
Makes Russian goods uncompetitive in key Western markets
Reduces foreign currency inflows
Hurts state revenue and the wider export-dependent economy
Redirects trade toward less demanding buyers (e.g., China, India) — but often at steep discounts
🔻 Combined Effects on Russia:
Energy Exports: Revenues squeezed by tariffs, price caps, and market loss
Banking Sector: Isolated, cash-strapped, forced to rely on internal capital
Tech/Defence: Degrading due to sanctions on imports and partners
Global Reach: Severely weakened by secondary sanctions deterrence
Trade Flows: Shifted toward grey markets and low-margin partners
🧭 Trumps latest threat of “tariffs in 50 days”:
There are conflicting interpretations of what Trump has threatened to do with Russia in 50 days. Let’s focus on exactly what he said:
These are Trumps reported words:
“The US president warned of very severe tariffs on countries such as China and India, unless the Russian President comes to the table. We are going to be doing Secondary Tariffs. If we don't have a deal in 50 days. It’s very simple, they will be at 100%.”
These “tariffs” would be applied on countries dealing with the US, that continue buying Russian oil and gas, which does encompass major buyers like India and China. Arguably, this means he will tariff China and India 100%, the “secondary” parties to russian trade.
The current social media chit chat is around Trump saying he will tariff Russia which is not what was said. Listening to what he said exactly, his threat was aimed at China and India, and not russia. Tariffs cannot be applied by the US for trade between Russia and China or India - the US is not a party or intermediary to those trades.
What seems to be implied by Trump here, is he will tariff other countries including the Chinese and Indian goods coming into the US as a punishment for Russia not concluding peace talks with Ukraine.
A 100% tariff on two of the largest trading partners and world economies is really bad news for China and India’s exports to the US - but it will also be catastrophic to the US citizens pockets and the US inflationary pressures. One should also expect these countries to respond with retaliatory tariffs for all US goods and services into China and India.
Update: 15 July, 2025:
More recent reports have Trump on record, threatening both sanctions and tariffs - vaguely.
https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1945181210147217727?s=61
“The U.S. President also stated that if no agreement is reached within 50 days, it would be “very unfortunate” — and tariffs along with other sanctions would then be imposed.”
Trump is also quoted as saying: “We will impose severe tariffs on Russia if we don't have a deal in 50 days - 100% secondary tariffs.”
According to open information, US annual imports from Russia are about $3 billion, which in the scale of economies - is small. Kyiv Independent reports:
“In 2024, the US imported $3 billion in goods from Russia – and exported $526.1 million in goods.
The Office of the United States Trade Representative, which published the data, said imports from Russia decreased by 34.2%, amounting to $1.5 billion, compared to the previous year in 2023.
In comparison, US goods imported from Indonesia totaled $28.1 billion in 2024.
The data includes all goods imported into the US but excludes services. The values are determined by the declared values via the customs, and thus any tariffs are not taken into account.”
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/56347
Context of 100% of 3 Billion in tariffs on Russian trade with the US:
So let’s put this into context: If Trump levies a 100% tax on the $3billion in trade with russia, the financial pain might reach $3billion. Park that thought.
The cumulative effect of European sanctions on Russia since February 22, 2022 equates to half a trillion Euros. Thats 500 Billion Euros.
The threat of 100% tariffs on Russia won’t worry the war criminal in the slightest by comparison. It’s almost derisory as an instrument of punishment.
So what is being threatened?
The exact details of the threatened sanctions are not provided, leaving room for speculation. Again, the question is who would he apply sanctions on? It is unlikely to be directly on Russia, as the level of trade between the US and Russia has diminished to a trickle, and bear in mind - the US still buys uranium from Russia for it’s own nuclear programme requirements. Possibly a first stop on retaliatory measures by Russia?
So would sanctions then be applied on China and India (which would be secondary sanctions applied to oil and gas trade)? This would be quite effective in forcing them to stop fossil fuel trading with Russia - as sanctions would attract world-wide measures including the freezing of financial assets under the sanctions application rules of OFAC.
However, given the ambivalence and reticence of the Trump administration to tackle Russia head on, the smart money says Trump will either limit the scope of any sanctions or not follow through with them at all.