Seventeen Refineries - One Strategy

How repeated Ukrainian strikes reshaped Russia’s refining landscape in 2025

A year long campaign targeting Russia’s energy vulnerabilities - including confirmation and the impact of the most recent shut down of the Novoshakhtinsk refinery in December 2025

Here’s a concise summary of Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil refineries in 2025 and the impact on Russian refined products and crude oil output, based on multiple reporting sources:

Number & Scope of Ukrainian Attacks in 2025

Multiple refinery attacks

• Ukraine has conducted a sustained campaign of strikes on Russia’s oil infrastructure throughout 2025, with the intensity increasing especially from summer into autumn.

• Reuters and industry sources estimate at least ~17 major refineries were struck by Ukrainian drones and missiles in 2025.

• Some Ukrainian reports and media mention well over 100 attacks on oil facilities (refineries, depots and related infrastructure) when broader energy targets are included.

• Several refineries have been hit more than once as part of a deliberate strategy to degrade capacity and force repeated repairs.

Refining capacity affected

• At peak disruption, roughly 17–20% of Russia’s refining capacity was taken offline due to Ukraine’s attacks plus scheduled maintenance.

• Some analytical estimates (which include potential rather than actual outages) even suggest up to ~38% of capacity could be out of operation at times.

• Ukraine struck at least ~17 significant refineries directly in 2025, and there were dozens to low-hundreds of broader strikes on oil facilities when depots and terminals are included.

Impact on Russian Refined Oil Output in 2025

Refining volume effects

• Despite the intensity of attacks, Russia managed to limit overall refining output declines:

  • Oil processing fell by only ~3% compared to last year (January–October 2025), as spare units and idle capacity were used to absorb disruptions.

  • During peak waves of strikes (Aug–Oct), refining was reportedly down ~6% (~300,000 barrels per day) relative to the previous year.

Capacity vs. actual runs

• ~20% of capacity was offline at peak, but actual production fell by a much smaller share, showing resilience partly enabled by rerouting processing elsewhere.

Effect on fuel supply

• The outages contributed to regional fuel shortages and higher local prices in parts of Russia.

Impact on Russian Crude Oil Output & Exports

Crude output

• Russia’s oil and fuel export revenues hit their lowest levels since the Ukraine invasion — a result of lower export volumes and disrupted fuel shipments.

• The direct effect of these refinery attacks on crude oil extraction itself (upstream) has been limited — Russian crude production levels have generally stayed robust, with most cuts affecting how much crude Russia refines domestically rather than how much it produces at the wellhead. (No strong evidence of major upstream production declines solely due to these attacks has been reported.)

• However, disruptions to terminals and export infrastructure (e.g., terminals struck by drones) have occasionally affected export flows for both Russia and neighbouring producers like Kazakhstan.

Exports and revenue

• Damage to refining infrastructure reduces refined product exports (gasoline, diesel), which are a significant source of revenue for Russia. Reports describe decreases in export volumes and policies restricting fuel exports to preserve domestic supply.

• Overall, the strategic campaign contributes to downward pressure on Russian energy export revenues, but crude export volumes have often been maintained or shifted to different markets to offset refining disruptions.

Here are direct Reuters links and official-source reporting covering Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil infrastructure in 2025, effects on refining/crude output, and impacts on revenues/export volumes:

Refining Capacity & Output (Reuters Reporting)

• Russia has been using spare oil refining capacity to offset damage from Ukrainian drone attacks. Refineries brought damaged units back into service and activated idle capacity, limiting overall refining declines despite extensive strikes.

• A Reuters piece reported Transneft (the Russian oil pipeline monopoly) warned producers they might have to cut crude oil output due to ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks, though this has been contested by Russian officials.

Broader Disruption to Exports & Refineries

• Repeated Ukrainian strikes have hit Russia’s energy infrastructure, including oil refineries and export facilities, dealing a serious blow to Moscow’s fuel exports.

• Reuters also reported on large-scale drone assaults on Russian refineries, including a major attack with hundreds of drones, demonstrating the intensity of the campaign.

• Earlier in the year, refineries and terminals burned as Ukraine targeted Russia’s war economy, with fires disrupting processing and exports.

Key Economic Figures from Reuters & Allied Data

Refining Output & Capacity

• Ukraine’s attacks, combined with maintenance, took an estimated ~20% of Russian refining capacity offline at the height of the campaign (Aug–Oct). But Russia mitigated much of the damage by using spare refining units, resulting in a modest decline in overall refining volumes (about 3–6% lower than a year earlier).

Actual Refining Levels

• According to Reuters-based industry sources (reported via secondary outlets), Russia processed around 5.1 million barrels per day, roughly 300,000 bpd (3–6%) less than the previous year during peak disruption.

Fuel Export Declines

• Reuters calculations indicate that **Russian marine exports of refined petroleum products dropped by around 17% in September due to drone strikes on multiple refineries including Kirishi, Volgograd, and Samara complexes.

Revenue Effects

• The International Energy Agency (IEA), quoted in Reuters reporting, noted that Russia’s oil and fuel export revenues reached multi-year lows, influenced by lower volumes and continuing hits to infrastructure.

What Reuters Has (and Hasn’t) Reported

Reuters HAS reported:

• Damage to exporters and refineries forcing output adjustments and export cuts.

• Official source warnings about potential crude output impacts due to infrastructure damage (e.g., Transneft).

• A noticeable drop in export revenues tied to constrained fuel shipments.

Reuters has not published:

• An official Russian government consolidated table of total crude production fall tied solely to Ukrainian attacks in 2025. (Some industry data and Reuters reporting suggest possible upstream effects, but official Russian statistics on crude output are sparse or lagged.)

• A comprehensive government figure tying total 2025 budget revenue losses directly to refinery strikes; such assessments are instead made by analysts and international agencies.

Documented Ukrainian Attacks on Russian Refineries in 2025

January–February

• Feb 3, 2025 — Volgograd Oil Refinery (Lukoil, Volgograd Oblast) struck by Ukrainian drones overnight; fire and damage to processing units reported.

• Jan 24, 2025 & Jan 26, 2025 & Feb 24, 2025 — Ryazan Oil Refinery (Ryazan Oblast) hit multiple times by drones, causing explosions and fires near the primary processing facility.

March

• Mar 10, 2025 — Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery damaged by drones; main processing unit CDU-11 hit, temporarily halting operations by August.

August 2025 (Wave of Attacks)

(From Attacks on the Russian energy system in August 2025)

• Aug 2, 2025 — Novokuibyshevsk and Ryazan refineries attacked again; Novokuibyshevsk later shut down and Ryazan reduced capacity.

• Aug 10, 2025 — Saratov Oil Refinery and Lukoil-Ukhta Oil Refinery struck by drones.

• Aug 14, 2025 — Volgograd Oil Refinery attacked; fire and suspension of crude intake reported.

• Aug 15, 2025 — Syzran Oil Refinery hit; fire broke out and crude intake/processing was temporarily suspended.

• Aug 21, 2025 — Novoshakhtinsk Oil Products Plant (in Rostov region) was struck, starting a fire at the facility (before the later December Storm Shadow attack).

Late 2025

• Dec 25, 2025 — Novoshakhtinsk Oil Refinery struck by UK-supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles, causing significant explosions and damage, contributing to shutdown.

Other Reported or Partial Incidents

• Multiple attacks (unclear official dates) — sources report over 140 total strikes on Russian refineries and fuel depots in 2025, exceeding prior years’ figures (aggregated attacks via drones and strikes on related infrastructure).

• Some trackers (e.g., private “drone strike trackers”) list additional reports of Orsknefteorgsintez and Saratov refinery strikes in November 2025, as well as earlier hits in Oct/Sept — but official confirmation varies by individual facility.

Note: These lists do not include oil depots, pipeline facilities, or terminals — which have also been frequently targeted, sometimes affecting crude transport/export rather than refining directly.

Summary of impact — 2025

Reuters reported that at the peak of the strike campaign in late summer–autumn 2025, roughly 17–20% of Russia’s total oil refining capacity was taken offline when damage from Ukrainian drone and missile attacks was combined with scheduled maintenance.

Despite this, actual refinery throughput fell by much less because Russia activated idle units and spare capacity at unaffected plants. According to Reuters sources, total crude processing declined by about 3% year-on-year on average in 2025, with steeper temporary drops of around 5–6% (roughly 250,000–300,000 barrels per day) during the most intense attack periods.

In absolute terms, Russia continued to process roughly 5.0–5.2 million barrels per day, compared with about 5.3–5.4 million bpd in the previous year.

On the upstream side, Reuters has consistently noted that crude oil production itself remained comparatively resilient. Russian crude output stayed close to 9.2–9.4 million barrels per day through most of 2025, with no confirmed sustained collapse directly attributable to refinery strikes.

However, Reuters also reported that Transneft warned producers in September 2025 that continued drone attacks on refineries and export infrastructure could force temporary crude production cuts if storage filled and export bottlenecks worsened, underscoring latent upstream risk even if it did not fully materialise.

The clearest economic signal appears in export volumes and revenues.

Reuters, citing International Energy Agency data, reported that Russia’s oil and fuel export revenues fell to their lowest levels since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by late 2025. Marine exports of refined petroleum products dropped sharply during peak strike months, with Reuters calculations showing product exports down by roughly 15–20% year-on-year in some months, particularly September and October, as multiple refineries were offline simultaneously.

This loss of higher-margin refined exports weighed more heavily on revenue than the relatively stable crude volumes.

Year-on-year revenue effects were therefore disproportionate to production losses. While crude output declined only marginally, oil and fuel export revenues fell by double-digit percentages compared with 2024, reflecting lower volumes of refined products, higher logistics costs, and the need to discount exports amid infrastructure disruption.

Reuters’ overall assessment is that Ukraine’s 2025 refinery strike campaign did not collapse Russian oil production, but it compressed refining margins, reduced fuel exports, and materially weakened energy cash flows, creating sustained fiscal pressure even as headline crude production numbers appeared relatively stable.

Ukraine’s Kinetic Sanctions are working:

The Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery has been shut down.

December 2025: Credible reports indicate that the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in Russia’s Rostov Oblast was hit by Ukrainian strikes and has suspended or severely curtailed operations. Sources (including multiple news outlets tracking the conflict) describe a Ukrainian strike with long-range weapons (missiles and drones) on or around 25 December 2025 that caused explosions and damage at the facility.

Prior to this latest strike, the refinery had previously been damaged by Ukrainian drone attacks in 2025, with fires and operational disruptions reported.

Some open-source discussions also suggest the facility’s two primary refining units may have been taken offline following recent drone strikes and resultant damage, leading to a practical shutdown of processing.

Drones, or Missiles, or both?

• The December 25, 2025 strike was reported to involve Storm Shadow long-range cruise missiles supplied by the UK, used by Ukraine’s Air Force.

• Ukraine’s broader campaign against Russian oil infrastructure frequently involves long-range drones as well as other munitions. Prior strikes on Novoshakhtinsk (e.g., in August 2025) were attributed to Ukrainian drones.

So the shutdown appears linked to multiple Ukrainian attacks — including drones and cruise missiles — as part of a broader targeting campaign.

The impact on Russian oil production and revenue

The direct impact of this one refinery shutting down is relatively modest in the context of Russia’s entire oil industry — Novoshakhtinsk is a regional refinery supplying fuel to southern Russia rather than one of the very largest in the country.

However, it fits into a larger pattern of Ukrainian strikes significantly disrupting Russia’s oil refining sector:

• By late 2025, Ukrainian attacks had disrupted at least ~17 % of Russia’s total oil refining capacity — roughly 1.1 million barrels per day — according to Reuters calculations.

• Industry data suggest that at the peak of strikes, up to about 20 % of Russia’s refinery capacity was offline, though spare capacity at unaffected plants has helped Russia limit the overall drop in processed volumes to a few percent for 2025 as a whole.

Revenue impact:

• Reduced refining capacity can lower export volumes of oil products (which are priced separately from crude), tightening supply and reducing export revenue.

• The International Energy Agency (IEA) and market tracking referenced in broader analyses indicate that Russia’s oil product export revenues fell to multi-year lows partly due to these disruptions.

• Russia has generally offset damage by redirecting crude to exports or using spare refining units, but repairs are costly and repeated attacks make long-term stability harder.

Domestic consequences have included fuel shortages and higher regional prices in parts of Russia, especially where refinery outages have been extensive.

References and sources URLs

Facility Attacks & Dates

• Volgograd & Astrakhan drone strikes: https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-drones-strike-russian-energy-facilities-kyiv-says/

• Ryazan oil refinery multiple strikes: https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-drones-attack-oil-refinery-in-russias-ryazan-oblast-for-3rd-time-since-beginning-of-2025/

• March & August refinery attacks (Novokuibyshevsk, Syzran, Volgograd, Saratov): Attacks on the Russian energy system in August 2025 (PDF)

• Novoshakhtinsk hit by missiles: https://ru.apa.az/cis-countries/ukraina-nanesla-udar-britanskimi-raketami-po-npz-v-rossii-proizosli-vzryvy-631304

Broader Strike Counts

• Ukraine struck >140 times against Russian refineries and oil depots in 2025: https://charter97.org/ru/news/2025/12/26/667922/

• Some trackers indicate 17 oil facilities hit early 2025 by drones: https://english.nv.ua/nation/drones-hit-17-russian-oil-facilities-in-early-2025-disrupting-refineries-and-depots-astra-50490883.html

Novoshakhtinsk Oil Refinery Attacks & Shutdown

• Ukraine struck the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery with British Storm Shadow missiles (explosions reported, facility damaged):
  https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/dec/26/ukraine-war-briefing-kyiv-hits-russian-oil-refinery-with-british-storm-shadow-missiles

• Recent reports describe explosions and a major fire at the Novoshakhtinsk refinery after the strike:
  https://news.az/news/ukraine-strikes-russias-novoshakhtinsk-oil-refinery

• Ukraine has knocked out a significant share of Russia’s oil refining capacity this year, including multiple facilities:
  https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/08/26/ukraine-knocks-out-17-of-russias-oil-capacity-and-thats-just-this-month-reuters-says/

• Previous attacks have hit Russian oil refineries and terminals, disrupting oil processing and exports:
  https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-oil-refineries-terminals-burn-ukraine-hits-putins-war-economy-2025-08-25/

• Russian regions are experiencing fuel supply disruptions tied to refinery damage (e.g., request for government help):
  https://theins.ru/en/news/286687

Broader Context: Impact on Russia’s Oil Refining Capacity

• Reports have noted that Ukrainian strikes have disabled a significant portion of Russia’s refining capacity this year, disrupting output and exports:
  https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/08/26/ukraine-knocks-out-17-of-russias-oil-capacity-and-thats-just-this-month-reuters-says/

Useful Reuters Source Links (Direct)

• Russia’s oil & fuel export revenues fall to lowest level since invasion
  https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-oil-fuel-export-revenues-touch-lowest-level-since-ukraine-invasion-iea-2025-12-11/

• Russia using spare refinery capacity to offset Ukrainian drone damage
  https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-using-spare-oil-refining-capacity-offset-ukrainian-drone-damage-sources-say-2025-11-13/

• Russia close to cutting oil output due to drone attacks (Transneft warning)
  https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-close-cutting-oil-output-due-drone-attacks-sources-say-2025-09-16/

• Ukraine’s repeated strikes hitting Russian fuel exports
  https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/ukraine-strikes-russian-oil-might-be-too-successful-trumps-liking-2025-09-25/

• Refineries and terminals burn as Ukraine targets Russia’s oil sector
  https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-oil-refineries-terminals-burn-ukraine-hits-putins-war-economy-2025-08-25/

• Ukraine attacks major refinery with drone assault
  https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ukraine-attacks-major-russian-refinery-with-drone-assault-2025-09-14/

If you enjoy my threads, please consider supporting my work on Patreon or BuymeACoffee!

Thank You! to those who have supported me on Patreon or buymeacoffee, you are simply awesome.

buymeacoffee.com/beefeaterfella

patreon.com/Beefeater_Fella

beefeaterresearch.substack.com

BeefeaterFella youtube.com/@beefeaterfella