The Dummies Guide to leaving NATO
Understanding the intent and legal position of the United States leaving NATO and Ukraine joining NATO
The Dummies guide to leaving NATO
👉 NATO background:
NATO has 32 member countries. These countries, called NATO Allies, are sovereign states that come together through NATO to discuss political and security issues and make collective decisions by consensus.
NATO was created by 12 countries from Europe and North America on 4 April 1949.
Since then, 20 more countries have joined NATO through 10 rounds of enlargement (in 1952, 1955, 1982, 1999, 2004, 2009, 2017, 2020, 2023 and 2024).
Article 10 of the North Atlantic Treaty sets out how countries can join the Alliance. It states that membership is open to any "European State in a position to further the principles of this Treaty and to contribute to the security of the North Atlantic area".
Any decision to invite a country to join the Alliance is taken by the North Atlantic Council, NATO's principal political decision-making body, on the basis of consensus among all Allies.
On signing the Treaty, countries voluntarily commit themselves to participating in the political consultations and military activities of the Organisation. Although each and every signatory to the North Atlantic Treaty is subject to the obligations of the Treaty, there remains a certain degree of flexibility, which allows members to choose how they participate.
For an in-depth comparative analysis of NATO and the EU collective defence treaty set out in Article 42(7) TEU, see Beefy’s post here:
https://open.substack.com/pub/beefeaterresearch/p/mutual-defence-treaties-as-the-us?r=4r2ohh&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false
#NATO's Article 5 was only invoked once, by the United States after the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the World Trade Centre in New York. As a result, 1,105 European & Canadian soldiers died in the 20-year Afghanistan War - 1/3 of coalition casualties.
Of the 136 countries that came to the US’s aid following the call for help from the US - not ONE country has asked, or demanded to be reimbursed.
👉 Exiting NATO - the general position:
The exit route for nations is straightforward. According to NATO, a country has to give one year’s notice of its intention to leave. Protocol dictates that the country has to inform the United States that it wants to quit, which would then officially pass on the message.
Under Article 13 [of the NATO founding charter] there is a possibility for an ally to cease to be a party to the treaty.
Article 13, which hasn’t been modified since the Alliance’s creation in 1949, states that a country can leave “after the treaty has been in force for 20 years.”
That language was included mainly because of fears that communists might one day take power in the likes of Italy and France and try to get out of NATO. Twelve of the 28 allies joined less than 20 years ago.
The trickier matter is how to expel an ally against their will. The dictatorial turn in Turkey and the pro-Russian stance of Greece and Hungary have raised the question, but there’s nothing in the NATO treaty that foresees this scenario.
The closest a country has ever come to a Brexit-style departure is France. In 1966, then President Charles de Gaulle pulled the country out of NATO’s military command, but not out of the Alliance proper, arguing that he had to preserve French independence in global affairs. The move infuriated the United States. In 2009, Nicolas Sarkozy brought France fully back into the NATO fold.
There are three reasons why no country has ever left the Alliance, according to Jonathan Eyal, associate director at security and defense think-tank RUSI. “Firstly, during the Cold War the continent was divided and the … middle road, neutrality, was difficult to achieve; secondly, the Alliance specialised and remained specialised in the field of defense, and there is no alternative to it; thirdly, since NATO is still the fundamental structure for U.S. involvement in Europe, if you leave you cut yourself off [from the U.S.],” he said.
No-one has ever imagined the scenario of the US leaving NATO, a possibility now being suggested as a Trump intent. By following the same logical argument set out above - if Trump continues to fully align with Russia and he pulls the USA out of NATO - this would not just be an ending of the security architecture post WW2, this will be the ending of relationships between the US and the majority of NATO member states. There will be a minority of nations, who are aligned to Russia - that Trump will almost certainly retain relations with.
👉 Donald Trump’s plans on exiting NATO:
It's not every day that a former (and perhaps future) U.S. president says to NATO members that he'll allow an adversarial nation to "do whatever the hell they want" if those allies don't pay up. Nor is it every day that a presidential candidate threatens to withdraw from the alliance altogether.
As a possible indicator of Trump’s intent to leave NATO and join russia as an ally, it is worth remembering that JD Vance says US could drop support for NATO if Europe tries to regulate Elon Musk’s platforms. Elon Musk at that time had just become the largest donor for Trump’s re-election in January 2025.
JD Vance has suggested that American support for NATO should be predicated on the European Union not regulating Elon Musk and his X social media platform, formerly known as Twitter.
In February 2025, the un-official US vice president Elon Musk tweeted support in a call for leaving NATO.
👉 The legal position internally in the US:
With NATO hanging in the balance, Congress has sought to prevent the executive office from being able to take the United States out of the alliance. At the end of 2023, after over five years of consideration, Congress finally passed legislation barring any future U.S. president from unilaterally withdrawing from NATO.
Notwithstanding this legislation, if a president’s intention to leave NATO is indeed serious, as former Trump National Security Advisor John Bolton believes is the case with Donald Trump, the commander-in-chief would have many perfectly legal ways to limit U.S. participation in the alliance without formal withdrawal. A U.S. exit in any informal or formal way would most likely spell an end to NATO itself.
Over five years ago, the Senate set out to create a legal backstop for a premature U.S. exit from NATO. A bipartisan group of senators led by Virginia Democrat Tim Kaine and Colorado Republican Cory Gardner introduced a joint resolution on July 26, 2018 that would require any president to seek the advice and consent of the Senate before withdrawing from NATO.
The failsafe mechanism was straightforward: Any president would have to get two-thirds of the Senate to agree to a NATO withdrawal, the same as the requirement for the ratification of a new treaty, but in reverse. It was an unprecedented step—one that garnered significant media attention and expert debate at the time.
But it wasn’t until the current 118th Congress that lawmakers finally achieved their goal. The NATO-related legislative language passed Congress this past December as part of the Fiscal Year 2024 National Defense Authorisation Act, the annual defense policy bill. President Joe Biden’s signing the act into law was a rare example of a commander-in-chief endorsing a provision that restricts the executive branch’s own powers—usually, the White House lawyers would fight such an outcome tooth and nail.
The legal issues involved in pre-empting an attempted U.S. exit from NATO are complicated. Members of Congress have already tried multiple times—and failed—to prevent the executive branch from unilaterally exiting other major treaties.
Politico has reported that Trump could try to sidestep Congress’s NATO guardrail, citing presidential authority over foreign policy — an approach he used before to bypass congressional restrictions on treaty withdrawal. If Trump simply declared he was pulling out of the alliance, it’s unclear whether Congress would have the legal standing to sue him for ignoring the law, according to Curtis Bradley, the Allen M. Singer distinguished service professor at the University of Chicago Law School.
Congress has tried multiple times—and failed—to prevent the executive branch from exiting other major treaties.
👉 Ukraine joining NATO
NATO published a fact sheet (see references), that sets out the following statement:
“All 32 NATO Allies have agreed that Ukraine will become a member of the Alliance. NATO supports the right of every country to choose its own security arrangements, including Ukraine. NATO's door remains open. Ukraine, as the country who wishes to join and NATO Allies decide on NATO membership. Russia does not have a veto.
At the 2024 Washington Summit, Allies reaffirmed their full support for Ukraine’s right to choose its own security arrangements and decide its own future, free from outside interference. Ukraine will become a member of the Alliance when conditions are met and Allies agree.
In Washington, Allies confirmed their support for Ukraine on its irreversible path to NATO membership. They agreed to establish NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU)to coordinate the provision of military equipment and training for Ukraine by Allies and partners. They also announced a pledge of long-term security assistance for Ukraine, providing a minimum baseline funding of 40 billion Euro within the next year, and sustainable levels of security assistance in the future. “
👉 References and sources:
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_52044.htm
https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/12/politics/us-out-nato-second-trump-term-former-senior-adviser/index.html
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/jd-vance-elon-musk-x-twitter-donald-trump-b2614525.html
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/08/trump-nato-congress-courts-00188426
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_227678.htm
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_227863.htm
https://www.nato.int/cps/ra/natohq/115204.htm
https://www.politico.eu/article/how-to-walk-away-from-nato-country-leaving/
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Although trump asserts that he's supportive of NATO his actions and behaviour suggest otherwise. NATO is an alliance worth preserving and in four years time trump will be gone so hopefully, a degree of sanity will be restored. Ukraine's accession should be accelerated once hostilities have ceased and normality re-established